The Hidden Danger Behind the Explosion of the Third Wave of Covid-19 in Indonesia
In the last month, Covid-19 cases in Indonesia have increased again sharply with the spread of the new Omicron variant. During the initial period of the third wave (4 January-3 February 2022),? There has been at least a spike of more than 150 thousand new cases. The number of active cases has increased to 115,275 people. Unfortunately, the feeling of vigilance and worry in society has not increased.
PRESS RELEASE
The Hidden Danger Behind the Explosion of the Third Wave of Covid-19 in Indonesia
In the last month, Covid-19 cases in Indonesia have increased again sharply with the spread of the new Omicron variant. During the initial period of the third wave (4 January-3 February 2022),? There has been at least a spike of more than 150 thousand new cases. The number of active cases has increased to 115,275 people. Unfortunately, the feeling of vigilance and worry in society has not increased. The severity of the situation is judged only by the large and significant increase in the number of deaths, so that vigilance decreases. Moreover, many parties only compare the current number of deaths due to Covid-19 with the period when the delta variant spread in mid-2021.
The largest increase in the number of new cases occurred in DKI Jakarta (10,319 cases) and West Java (7,308 cases). These two provinces represent 65 percent of new cases in Indonesia as of February 3 2022. If we look at trends, over the last 14 days cases in DKI Jakarta have jumped 6 times, while West Java has increased 13 times. Apart from that, the positivity rate in DKI Jakarta has increased to 32 percent over the last 30 days.
This is of course no longer surprising to us, considering that these two provinces are indeed provinces with quite large populations and high population mobility. Even so, the dynamic background of the population is certainly not a reason to justify and allow a situation that has the potential to endanger lives.?
The rate of increase in cases of the Omicron variant is much faster
The increase in Covid-19 cases with the Omicron variant is quite different from the Delta variant. These two variants of Covid-19 still have the same risks and still threaten human lives. In fact, the Omicron variant has a faster transmission rate than the Delta variant.
Based on the graph of the 7 daily average numbers of new Covid-19 cases, the Omicron variant of the Covid-19 wave accelerated faster than the Delta variant during the first 30 days. The number of new Covid-19 cases on the first day of the Omicron wave (January 5 2022) was 404 cases, then within 30 days it became 27,197 cases or an increase of 67 times. Meanwhile, the Delta wave showed an increase in the number of new cases over 30 days of only 2 times.
The number of first daily cases at the start of the Omicron wave was 404 cases or 10 times smaller than the first daily cases at the start of the Delta wave (4,184 cases). However, within 30 days the number of new cases of the Omicron variant was 3 times greater than the Delta variant. From this data it can be concluded that the transmission rate of Omicron was observed to be 33 times faster than Delta.
Death Trend Increases Slowly
Not only are daily new cases increasing, the trend of deaths has been creeping up over the last 14 days. The number of positive Covid-19 deaths during the period 5 January 2022 – 3 February 2022 has reached 306 people. This fact is a danger signal as well as a warning for us to continue to comply with health protocols, speed up vaccination progress, and tighten mobilization again. This needs to be done in order to reduce potential dangers that threaten public safety. While the death trend continues to increase, this is a phase of hidden danger that overwhelms our vigilance, adding to the assumption that the situation is safe. On the other hand, the severity of this condition will begin to appear when the transmission of new cases becomes increasingly uncontrolled and hospital capacity becomes increasingly low as the wave of the Delta variant deals a heavy blow to public safety.
Therefore, the government needs to tighten regulations on implementing health protocols, limiting community mobility and economic activities, as well as increasing the number of daily tests so that it can reduce the rapid rate of transmission in the community. The government also needs to ensure the ability of the health service infrastructure to face the worst possibility of the peak of the third wave of Covid-19.
Contact Person
Said Fariz Hibban – 081527440489
