When will hospital capacity in Jakarta collapse?
PRESS RELEASE When will hospital capacity in Jakarta collapse? September 9 2020. The number of positive COVID-19 cases in DKI Jakarta has increased sharply. In fact, in the first week of September 2020, every day there was an increase of more than 1,000 positive cases, even though at the same time the testing capacity in DKI Jakarta was also increased. The high transmission rate in Jakarta also […]
PRESS RELEASE
When will hospital capacity in Jakarta collapse?
September 9, 2020. The number of positive cases of COVID-19 in DKI Jakarta has increased sharply. In fact, in the first week of September 2020, every day there was an increase of more than 1,000 positive cases, even though at the same time capacity testing in DKI Jakarta it was also added. The high level of transmission in Jakarta can also be seen from the positive ratio trend which continues to increase, even though the number of tests increases.
The surge in positive cases of COVID-19 in DKI Jakarta ultimately caused hospital capacity to be occupied, even almost full. Report COVID-19 with the team Social Resilience Lab, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), projected when hospital capacity will collapse to predict when capacity in Jakarta hospitals will be full to treat COVID-19 patients and analyze the impact on the number of deaths.
We use a mathematical modeling approach supported by literature studies and data on the number of ICU beds (TT), Bed Occupancy Rate (BOR), as well as data on COVID-19 cases in DKI Jakarta.
The number of active positive cases treated was correlated with TT ICU use. The correlation between the two is used to predict the maximum number of patients that can be treated.
The maximum number of active patients is around 5,500 patients in hospitals. We use the best and worst scenarios for the next 1 to 2 months through a Gaussian model. As a result, hospital capacity will be full by the beginning of the fourth week of September. If accompanied by a continuous increase in the number of positive cases, this pandemic will result in a total death toll of 3,000 people by the end of October.
Therefore, to avoid hospital collapse and protect DKI Jakarta residents from the threat of infection and death due to COVID-19, we recommend the DKI Jakarta Provincial government two main things:
- That it's time to hit the emergency brake. Namely by reintroducing the PSSB by closing at least 70% of public activities and facilities for at least six weeks with an evaluation period of 3 weeks.
- The DKI Jakarta Provincial Government must take stronger steps to reintroduce working from home, or work from home (WFH) for business people and offices. Only business actors in essential fields are allowed to operate. This also responds to the increasing number of positive COVID-19 cases found in offices in the DKI Jakarta area due to the opening of offices and business units.
Besides that, contact tracing And testing Massive measures are also an important factor that must continue to be improved in reducing the spread of COVID-19 in society.
As an additional note, treatment or isolation room facilities could possibly be added. However, the number of doctors and other health workers will be difficult to increase. When there was a high number of patients in Jakarta last March-July, many volunteer regional health workers were brought to Jakarta. However, the current situation will be more difficult because regions are also experiencing an increase in cases. Moreover, in a number of studies, for example by FKUI, health workers have experienced this burnout. LaporCovid19.org, through Pusara Digital, has also documented the number of health workers who have lost their lives during this pandemic.
Contact Person: +6281358982549
Modeling Team:
Sulfikar Amir., PhD, +62 821-1728-6288
Fredy Tantri., PhD, +65 8122 5267
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